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I Don’t Lose a Wink of Sleep over North Korea September 25, 2017

Posted by Tantumblogo in asshatery, foolishness, It's all about the $$$, rank stupidity, self-serving, silliness, Society, technology.
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Several people have asked me what I think of North Korea and all these threats emanating from Kim Jong Un.  What I think is………don’t fund their weapons development, otherwise, just totally ignore them and encourage every possible economic sanction.  They are a one trick pony.  All they have is threats.  If they ever act on those threats, their one trump card is gone and they are utterly destroyed.  So, it is best to just ignore them.

But we, the US, have paid for their atomic weapons and ballistic missile development efforts. In 1994 Kim Il Sung precipitated a fake “crisis” over a nuclear weapons program that resulted in a total cave from Billy Boy Clinton and North Korea receiving several billion dollars in US aid, upon the false promise that the Norks would stop their nuclear weapons development program.  Lo and behold, 12 years later North Korea explodes a low tech, low yield fission implosion device (similar to Little Boy of Hiroshima), and Bush ’43 rewards them with more US aid for another totally empty promise. Several billion dollars later and the Norks have at least IRBMs and now, it seems, a thermonuclear device.  Now they are out of development funds, I surmise, again, and so are rattling their sabers to complete their weapon miniaturization and RV development efforts (with massive aid from Iran, who Obama showered with tens of billions of dollars in unfrozen Iranian assets all for a totally empty promise that they won’t further develop the nukes they already surely have) and so are looking for another 5 or 8 or 10 billion US dollars to help them complete their fully operational nuclear deterrent force, which we have, in all likelihood, already funded to its present state of completion.

What they are already doing is ALL they can do.  They have one play and one play alone: the crazy man saber rattle bluff.  The last 3 US presidents have fallen for it.  Don’t let Trump be the fourth, and, thank God, I don’t think he will.

Look, North Korea can inflict grievous harm on the US with either an EMP -which I doubt they have the capability to execute, it’s much trickier than it’s made out to be – or with a strike on any US targets within their missile range (which is quite unclear at present). But US strategic nuclear forces were designed to ride out an attack 100s of times more massive than anything the NorKs can do and hit back with enough force to effectively decapitate and devastate another superpower, let alone a broken peasant state with entirely centralized command and control.  And the NorKs know this.  They attack, they die.

Sure they can engage in various levels of malfeasance short of nuclear warfare that may deserve varying levels of responses, but the one response you don’t do is to give into their shakedown tactics yet again.  If they stage another commando raid on the South, as they have done many times in the past, you respond in kind or let the RoK do so (people forget, Korea, Republic of, has an extremely capable and highly motivated military).  Let the RoK and/or Japan start staging “accidental” penetrations of North Korean airspace by armed tactical aircraft.  There are myriad things to do, short of all out war.

So let them keep flapping their gums and staging whatever missile flights they can, but don’t let it bother you any more than any test flight of a Russian or Chinese ICBM, which occurs almost monthly, as well, and to no great fanfare.  Communicate in no uncertain terms that THIS administration will not be shaken down by a bully, and this will all quickly pass.  In the meantime finally get serious about continental missile defense and start deploying far more X-band tracking radars and GMD interceptors.  The fact that we still only have about 40 interceptors deployed, enough to have a 99% assurance of taking out 10 RVs, after 10 years in service is criminal negligence.

Unfortunately Trump’s only response will probably some angry tweets with no actual policy follow-up.  Even this is forgivable if he just won’t cave into this shakedown racket.

Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System deployment to cover CONUS could emulate proposed Sentinel system of late 1960s. Relocate West coast sites 500 miles to the east just for spite – say, northern Idaho, central NV, and AZ-CA border. Add a site to the MS-TN-AL border triangle.

Approximate defended area for a single Sentinel site. GMD sites can actually defend a much wider area as they have higher-performing missiles. Nevertheless when it comes to strategic defense overlap is GOOD.

Today’s strategic interceptors are designed to work on a shoot-shoot watch shoot-shoot basis.  That is, each inbound gets 4 interceptors nominally assigned.  Since RVs will be coming in along a generally restricted corridor missiles can be reassigned to new targets as targets are destroyed.  Unfortunately the current command and control infrastructure is only set up to handle one off or very limited attacks.  To provide continental coverage and deal with much more massive raids the C2 infrastructure would have to be significantly beefed up if not totally redesigned from the ground up.

Of course the Russians and Chinese would lose their minds if we pursued this objective but defense is inherently moral while relying on threatening the deaths of tens of millions of innocents in retaliation is inherently immoral.  That is to say, money spent pursuing missile defense is an objective good, while that spent on offensive retaliatory systems is much more morally problematic.  You cannot uninvent nuclear weapons or wish them away.  They are, in fact, proliferating far more rapidly now than at any time since their invention, along with the means to deliver them.

And yes of course there are other means of delivery but do we send men into combat without body armor because the other side has guns?  Of course not.  There are defenses against the other means of delivery AND there are huge problems with things like “sticking a nuke on a container ship” and sailing it into Los Angeles harbor.  How does the bad guy know the ship will wind up in Los Angeles, and not, say, the harbor of one of his friends? Or his own? The fact that people make frequent recourse to these rhetorical red herrings when arguing against missile defense – THE primary means of delivering nuclear weapons today and for the foreseeable future – says to me that they know missile defense is extremely effective, but they, for reasons known only to God, deny to see their own nation defended from this threat.

At any rate I’ll get to the stuff you really care about next, God willing.

850 ton Active Electronically Scanned Array Sea Based X-Band Radar. Reputed to be able to track a baseball off the coast of San Francisco while floating in the Chesapeake Sound, a distance of over 2900 miles.

Comments

1. c matt - September 26, 2017

Seems to me Kim’s actions are quite rational. Survival is a rational desire, and the only thing that seems to protect against US orchestrated regime change is possession of nuclear weapons. He has seen what happened to Saddam, Qaddafi, and what they are trying to do to Assad.

He doesn’t have to execute a first strike, simply cause sufficient concern that he is capable of inflicting damage should he be attacked and, presto, all he gets is angry tweets. Both sides can actually live with that.

The bigger concern is the US, with a criminal, immoral, dare I say satanic, Deep State in charge doing something stupid. That can cause one to lose a few winks of sleep.

2. Brian E. Breslin - September 27, 2017

Excellent read of the situation, Tantum. I hope C Matt’s take on our deep state forces is just a good surmise.


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