Flightline Friday: It seems Putin IS bullying US, others out of Syrian airspace

This is an interesting report from a retired CIA employee.  It seems Russian warplanes have behaved very aggressively over Syria, and have cowed the US into abandoning operations over most if not all of the country.  They have also been pretty heavy handed with others.  I would say this could get ugly in a hurry, if we didn’t have such a whimpering, self-soiling ninny as Commander in Chief.  There is almost nothing the Russians could do that he wouldn’t acquiesce to with a pathetic shudder:

From the earliest days of the Syrian conflict, the U.S. and its so-called “coalition partners” have debated creation of a no-fly zone over that war-torn country.  Years of discussions and trial balloons have led to…nothing.

Now, barely a week after his warplanes began combat missions over Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be on the verge of creating–you guessed it–a no-fly zone.  Russian jets have become increasingly aggressive as they patrol the country’s skies, conduct bombing missions against forces opposing their ally, Syrian dictator Bashir Assad, and even intrude into the airspace of neighboring Turkey.

Officially, the Russians have only a handful of air-to-air capable jets at their base near Latakia, on the Mediterranean coast, but those six SU-30 Fullbacks have been busy.  By various accounts, they chased away a four-ship formation of Israeli F-15s over Latakia, and entered Turkey’s airspace as well, locking onto a Turkish F-16 for a reported five minutes (emphasis ours).  Readers will note these claims have not been verified and read more like Russian propaganda than reliable reporting:

Six Russian fighter jets type Multirole Sukhoi SU – 30 SM have intercepted 4 Israeli McDonnell Douglas F-15’s fighter bombers attempting to infiltrate the Syrian coast. The Israeli F 15 warplanes have been flying over Syrian airspace for months and in particular the coast of Latakia, which is now the bridgehead of the Russian forces in Syria.

The Israeli jets would generally follow a fairly complex flight plan and approach Latakia from the sea.
On the night of 1 October 02, 2015, six Sukhoi SU-30 Russian SM fighters took off from the Syrian Hmimim airbase in the direction of Cyprus, before changing course and intercepting the four Israeli F-15 fighters off the coast of Syria, that were flying in attack formation……….. [The Russians have been seriously embarrassed since the end of the Cold War to see their kit routinely embarrassed by much, much better Western equipment. This has seriously hurt international sales upon which Russia depends to fund much new hardware development, as well as hurting their pride. As a result, the Russians have developed a strangely bombastic attitude regarding their military equipment and performance, frequently greatly exaggerating capabilities or treating simple instances of two groups of aircraft flying near each other in international airspace as a humiliating defeat for the other side.  This thing stinks of BS to me, for all we know, the Israelis were there precisely to gauge Russian reactions.  Satellite photos show only 6 Su-30 fighters deployed to Syria……would they really launch ALL of them on such a routine intercept mission?]

……..U.S. authorities report that Russian fighters–perhaps the same SU-30s–intercepted Predator drones over Syria on several occasions last week.  More from Fox News:

Russian fighter jets shadowed U.S. predator drones on at least three separate occasions high above Syria since the start of Russia’s air campaign last week, according to two U.S. officials briefed on this latest intelligence from the region. [I also don’t know about this.  Maybe, but Predators only fly at about 100 kts, way below stall speed for an Su-30, so any “shadowing” would consist of maybe some passes over the Predator in the same general vicinity.  If an Su-30 tried to fly alongside a Predator it would fall out of the sky]

……..Meanwhile, NATO is still smarting from that recent intercept of Turkish F-16s inside that country’s airspace by Russian-made MiG-29 Fulcrums, probably operated by the Syrian Air Force.  According to multiple reports, the Fulcrums “locked up” an F-16 for more than five minutes with its air intercept radar.  That account suggests that the Turkish jets were turning away from the threat as the MiG-29s gave chase.  Locking onto another aircraft with a fighter’s AI radar is considered an act of war. [It can be. This length of time is extremely unusual.  I wonder at the circumstances]  It is virtually unheard of for a warplane to maintain radar lock for that length of time.  Ask a fighter pilot to describe someone who is locked on for that long, and he (or she) will probably use one word: dead.  But the MiG-29s did not open fire, though the incident has further exacerbated tensions in the region.

These episodes are anything but a coincidence.  Putin is clearly spoiling for a fight, hoping to create an incident that would cause the U.S. and its allies to cease operations over Syria, while highlighting the capabilities of his own forces.  At this juncture, the Russians seem to have free reign in the skies; earlier today, a Pentagon spokesman announced that U.S. aircraft were rerouted in Syrian airspace, to avoid a nearby formation of Russian jets.  

And there’s one more element that Moscow may use to reinforce a potential no-fly zone.  Eleven days ago, Russian TV released video of the cruiserMoskva leaving its Black Sea port, enroute to the Mediterranean, and most likely, a port call at the naval base in Tartus.  The Moskva carries the SA-N-6, the naval version of the SA-10 surface-to-air missile system.  [Widely regarded as an extremely effective air defense system]

From positions in port or off the Syrian coast, the Moskva could engage targets at ranges up to 200 miles, [Not with SA-N-6 they couldn’t.  More like 80 miles] covering a good portion of southwestern Turkey, western Syria, all of Lebanon and northern Israel.  How will the U.S. or Israel respond when the Moskva locks up one of our aircraft, or shoots down a drone?  We may soon find out.

The Russians have also started using their Tomahawk equivalent (actually, it’s a lot better) cruise missile from ships against ground targets.  They appear to be pretty serious.

BTW, the Russians are hitting pretty much everyone – ISIS, Al Queada, and the “good guy” supposedly secular Western friendly forces. Meanwhile the Latin Patriarch for Syria has said that Assad is the best hope for Christians in the country and supports Russian intervention, continuing to regard the entire civil war as US-generated.

Wow.